South American Leagues · resolved market
Will EC Bahia win on 2025-11-23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xda5957f62a89cb71f355da95d453df2668df4bc5ef2b4c573396b16a16a650d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,802
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $50,399
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,802 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 58c | 15,000$8,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,300 | 316 | 43%136 W · 180 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e4…c991backed No | 42c | 14,993$6,297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,297.06 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked No | 47c | 3,957$1,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,842.51 | 332 | 51.8%172 W · 160 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 29c | 2,043$596 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.79 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 9c | 1,126$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.45 | 181 | 29.8%54 W · 127 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4021…956abacked Yes | 47c | 1,075$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.79 | 96 | 38.5%37 W · 59 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed No | 46c | 939.38$429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.78 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14fa…73f0backed Yes | 54c | 853.7$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.7 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 58c | 569.65$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$239.61 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 59c | 479.75$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.29 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 13c | 331$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 54c | 314.3$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.85 | 1,428 | 51.8%740 W · 688 L | +22.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 45c | 261.16$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.55 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f9e…6d32backed No | 43c | 250$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed No | 42c | 242$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.64 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -4.3wins | -0.31per pick | 38cpaid | -84.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…dad4backed Yes | 51c | 230$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x029e…36ddbacked No | 44c | 222.11$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.55 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.30per pick | 47cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba4…8a89backed No | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf537…8d55backed Yes | 51c | 200$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 28c | 194.08$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.51 | 494 | 49%242 W · 252 L | +22.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9020…2cfcbacked Yes | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x718a…5d86backed Yes | 58c | 173$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 67cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed No | 37c | 170.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.94 | 636 | 44.7%284 W · 352 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf104…d34cbacked No | 43c | 146.44$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.97 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3439…4f64backed Yes | 63c | 131.26$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.14 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +172.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed No | 13c | 111$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +11.9wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1fdb…62e0backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2d…d491backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e78…fcb4backed Yes | 58c | 94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68cc…24adbacked Yes | 58c | 92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.64 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 55c | 91.3$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 117 | 38.5%45 W · 72 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6fc8…8198backed Yes | 50c | 79.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 59c | 68.2$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f1f…8045backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 35cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed No | 43c | 58.14$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fb1…4df1backed Yes | 38c | 53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +3.9wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +43%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7483…96a6backed Yes | 58c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.28per pick | 56cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b6…27ddbacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40a7…5244backed Yes | 52c | 29.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe32c…db1bbacked No | 42c | 28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -36.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will EC Bahia win on 2025-11-23?this page
- Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2025-11-23?No won
- Will EC Bahia vs. CR Vasco da Gama end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.