Us Politics · resolved market
Will Trump issue an executive order on February 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb123bb853e4749c629f370adef4a44526eb450611d0c0921d80caf7bf47b5be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,140
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,567
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,140 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8588…de5ebacked No | 1c | 8,868$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.35 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4470…d1fdbacked No | 0c | 8,478$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7afebacked No | 1c | 5,923$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.64 | 45 | 22.2%10 W · 35 L | -3.6wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -63.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked No | 2c | 2,514$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.79 | 385 | 9.4%36 W · 349 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 12cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc288…edb1backed No | 1c | 2,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74da…1ba5backed No | 8c | 1,300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.8 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x711e…2091backed No | 2c | 1,200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 5cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 2c | 700$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 696 | 34.9%243 W · 453 L | -48.8wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x80da…4f6dbacked No | 5c | 674.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.92 | 194 | 36.1%70 W · 124 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked No | 2c | 600$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 116 | 12.9%15 W · 101 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x582f…99efbacked No | 17c | 95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdeea…8921backed Yes | 80c | 76$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c28…aca7backed No | 20c | 76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb8…9dd9backed Yes | 79c | 67$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3fe…ce30backed No | 21c | 67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0352…451ebacked Yes | 80c | 51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d6f…cf90backed No | 20c | 51$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa162…57a8backed Yes | 80c | 43$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x103a…8d1abacked Yes | 80c | 26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c7…978abacked Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a58…5e2fbacked Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…5c35backed Yes | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbec6…423cbacked Yes | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.