Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdb7044a24431e2100e980b2ea2c0724c7279563d1825d44e14466297907620db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,776
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,776 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 29c | 286.3$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.35 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 16c | 256.54$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.05 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff53…f5ecbacked Yes | 7c | 206.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 14c | 198.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.32 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 16c | 156.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.49 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 133.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc1…2496backed Yes | 15c | 132.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.21 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 118.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58a4…7456backed Yes | 14c | 106.18$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 230 | 22.6%52 W · 178 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed7…bb28backed Yes | 13c | 99.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | +8.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 13c | 93.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.28 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 16c | 91.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 18c | 83.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.32 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 16c | 78.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 21c | 75.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 14c | 72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 17c | 67.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 79c | 41.92$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 77c | 32.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff4…bd7dbacked No | 79c | 31.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 80c | 28.42$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 72c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C or below on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.