Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e2eb22fd376ac9fed58e943d55e552f054a49fef46091d6c3a9e70658da06e6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,964
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 4c | 689.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 400$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f7…bfd3backed Yes | 31c | 370.86$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.75 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 76c | 333.65$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.32 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 79c | 225.11$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 74c | 196.46$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.58 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ad…22d6backed No | 77c | 164.11$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.08 | 61 | 44.3%27 W · 34 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 74c | 155.7$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.81 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 152.39$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.19 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 22c | 152.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd84…109dbacked Yes | 28c | 150.92$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 220 | 28.2%62 W · 158 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a26…c335backed Yes | 19c | 118.32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 862 | 26.8%231 W · 631 L | +28.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 24c | 114.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 114.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 22c | 112.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 109.9$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a1…1d37backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 320 | 41.9%134 W · 186 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…0d14backed Yes | 24c | 94.8$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 29c | 89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.81 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 20c | 77.34$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.64 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc1…2496backed Yes | 24c | 76.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 18c | 76.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 76c | 75.96$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.35 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 22c | 75.79$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 22c | 72.27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 17c | 70.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 66.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.65 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 72c | 66.66$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.51 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 63.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…727bbacked Yes | 25c | 63.29$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 21c | 60.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 18c | 56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 191 | 23%44 W · 147 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 23c | 55.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 27c | 51.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6fa…4f2dbacked Yes | 29c | 50.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 37cpaid | +73.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 79c | 50.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.49 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 75c | 49.85$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 49.82$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26a4…5593backed No | 79c | 49.33$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 75cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 71c | 48.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed Yes | 28c | 48.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fb4…695fbacked No | 72c | 48.54$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.54 | 57 | 73.7%42 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 26c | 47.23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 31c | 46.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 76c | 45.91$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.24 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 72c | 44.57$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked No | 79c | 44.13$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08fb…8b8bbacked Yes | 26c | 39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08ee…c0cbbacked Yes | 30c | 37.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 77 | 44.2%34 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 73c | 35.42$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f18…5b28backed No | 70c | 32.56$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 265 | 66.4%176 W · 89 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 31.59$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f6…eadabacked No | 72c | 30.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 165 | 75.8%125 W · 40 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 78c | 30.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…0cf9backed No | 76c | 29.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.94 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8208…a737backed No | 74c | 27.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 226 | 75.7%171 W · 55 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 68c | 21.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe166…7227backed No | 67c | 21.65$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 97 | 79.4%77 W · 20 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 70cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x31e2…a655backed No | 74c | 19.86$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 62 | 75.8%47 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf859…0866backed No | 75c | 17.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x34ab…4e36backed No | 79c | 16.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.46 | 197 | 72.6%143 W · 54 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6154…0404backed No | 74c | 16.29$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 35 | 80%28 W · 7 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4639…78b8backed No | 78c | 14.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.21 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on April 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C or below on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on April 4?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 15°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on April 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on April 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.