CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Oceania Cup #4 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbc4894a33a352741e343f9ca9254ab5416b3efc3da700206e019f98496033dc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- THUNDER dOWNUNDERof Ground Zero, THUNDER dOWNUNDER
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,760
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed Ground Zero | 9c | 2,010$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.36 | 1,411 | 33.7%475 W · 936 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Ground Zero | 11c | 1,222$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.61 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…385cbacked Ground Zero | 2c | 1,021$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd95d…2ab5backed Ground Zero | 9c | 657.13$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 325 | 44.3%144 W · 181 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0f1…8680backed Ground Zero | 13c | 625.02$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 2,522 | 43%1,085 W · 1,437 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc007…a0edbacked Ground Zero | 18c | 620.82$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.59 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Ground Zero | 19c | 603.62$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.44 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8f…d0e4backed Ground Zero | 13c | 516.57$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.19 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ground Zero | 11c | 508.33$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Ground Zero | 14c | 393.25$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb342…ff60backed Ground Zero | 16c | 304.82$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Ground Zero | 10c | 299.94$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.95 | 202 | 38.6%78 W · 124 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Ground Zero | 12c | 246.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 482 | 40%193 W · 289 L | +8.7wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Ground Zero | 16c | 244.83$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.44 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Ground Zero | 14c | 207.02$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Ground Zero | 13c | 156.86$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 132 | 46.2%61 W · 71 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb00…fda1backed Ground Zero | 25c | 153.55$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 411 | 47.7%196 W · 215 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddc…9c0fbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 73c | 126.02$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.03 | 290 | 44.8%130 W · 160 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Ground Zero | 11c | 120.82$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 2,061 | 50.7%1,045 W · 1,016 L | -18.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfff2…3f58backed Ground Zero | 13c | 115.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 69 | 18.8%13 W · 56 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 28cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Ground Zero | 10c | 108.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 1,003 | 55.7%559 W · 444 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Ground Zero | 14c | 105$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Ground Zero | 11c | 100.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8634…1b5bbacked Ground Zero | 21c | 95.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2785…ce75backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 73c | 94.1$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0c…231ebacked Ground Zero | 11c | 90.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfe…5c6cbacked THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 75c | 86.59$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 229 | 54.6%125 W · 104 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6495…6cd7backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 74c | 81.45$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +23%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…d4a0backed Ground Zero | 25c | 80$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 170 | 41.2%70 W · 100 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Ground Zero | 13c | 76.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2,102 | 16.8%353 W · 1,749 L | -286.5wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa55c…1066backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 77c | 57.7$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.27 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Ground Zero | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 288 | 56.6%163 W · 125 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c27…21a9backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 73c | 42.86$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.39 | 231 | 58.4%135 W · 96 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17c9…2d12backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 70c | 41.59$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ef…9cc1backed THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 74c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Oceania Cup #4 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER - Map 1 WinnerTHUNDER dOWNUNDER won
- Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs THUNDER dOWNUNDER - Map 2 WinnerTHUNDER dOWNUNDER won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.