CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Monte vs illwill (BO3) - Copenhagen Gaming Week Showdown Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc056607cb551828b134a4fb930b3326a5dd5c654ebe3c158c03318ac977a419
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Monteof Monte, illwill
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,452
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,879
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,452 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbc24…c8c4backed Monte | 66c | 6,933$4,553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,379.28 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed illwill | 34c | 3,000$1,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,020 | 508 | 33.5%170 W · 338 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bff…267ebacked illwill | 34c | 644$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.96 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +7.2wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb963…3fa0backed illwill | 38c | 555$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.9 | 500 | 43%215 W · 285 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8d…ab7ebacked illwill | 34c | 550$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 168 | 46.4%78 W · 90 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2700…9165backed illwill | 34c | 529.41$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed illwill | 34c | 500$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 1,033 | 61.6%636 W · 397 L | +87.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f9…d587backed illwill | 9c | 434.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.89 | 350 | 33.4%117 W · 233 L | +22.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8afe…aec0backed illwill | 49c | 317.59$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.98 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked illwill | 33c | 309.01$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.58 | 660 | 34.1%225 W · 435 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02dc…ef17backed Monte | 74c | 203.26$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.69 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49d…f05cbacked illwill | 34c | 202.66$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Monte | 74c | 195.1$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.68 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe2…e4d2backed illwill | 34c | 188$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.92 | 123 | 44.7%55 W · 68 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3701…ba6dbacked illwill | 35c | 146.17$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…1cf4backed illwill | 34c | 137.5$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.75 | 69 | 33.3%23 W · 46 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c2…3c0abacked illwill | 31c | 123.53$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 47 | 29.8%14 W · 33 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed illwill | 34c | 70.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 106 | 32.1%34 W · 72 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked illwill | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 956 | 42.6%407 W · 549 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed illwill | 20c | 54.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 958 | 49.8%477 W · 481 L | -17.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…47debacked illwill | 34c | 53.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe63d…0545backed illwill | 35c | 51.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…2b1abacked illwill | 34c | 44.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 700 | 36.1%253 W · 447 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde63…e0ddbacked illwill | 34c | 37.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc13…83b8backed Monte | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x120e…990abacked Monte | 76c | 13.76$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 101 | 58.4%59 W · 42 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.