World Politics · resolved market
South Korean People’s Power leader arrested by Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdc15443bc77dd777a12bb7501589284742a68f841439e0393c2684af2e566409
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,288
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,288 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x50a5…bafebacked Yes | 0c | 10,250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…b3debacked Yes | 2c | 7,391$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.43 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef29…2388backed Yes | 1c | 5,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec68…a36fbacked Yes | 0c | 4,584$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb2a…a436backed Yes | 5c | 3,789$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55e…0c66backed Yes | 2c | 3,766$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.4 | 38 | 2.6%1 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -90.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c9…9955backed Yes | 2c | 3,000$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…8070backed Yes | 4c | 2,185$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.47 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,721$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.38 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes | 5c | 1,715$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +307.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab95…bf6fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,190$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7c…1b5abacked Yes | 2c | 1,042$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66e2…1535backed Yes | 2c | 693.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…3ffdbacked Yes | 3c | 652.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes | 3c | 426.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 172 | 27.9%48 W · 124 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6320…ee59backed Yes | 14c | 400.45$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd124…b1c6backed Yes | 3c | 396.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc7…4e56backed Yes | 29c | 373.4$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.24 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 9c | 372.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 206 | 14.6%30 W · 176 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a5…5ac2backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83e2…ce08backed Yes | 12c | 280$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -78%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc5d6…24aabacked Yes | 10c | 259.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…4032backed No | 77c | 203.2$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x197a…4932backed Yes | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea8d…0325backed Yes | 12c | 121.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1918…7b6fbacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3701…ef1ebacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b2…c94abacked No | 72c | 35.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.