Tennis · resolved market
US Open: Luciano Darderi vs Carlos Alcaraz
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdcbf95f0e5c0ba423d7f6d8734a3213f96c62996f44e05ccfa49a60b5b601a5f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Alcarazof Darderi, Alcaraz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $59,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $59,979
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $59,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2ef5…39edbacked Darderi | 2c | 9,273$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.29 | 257 | 22.2%57 W · 200 L | -12.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd267…9dc6backed Darderi | 2c | 8,579$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.14 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Darderi | 1c | 4,796$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Darderi | 3c | 3,722$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Darderi | 3c | 3,515$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…5861backed Darderi | 2c | 3,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 152 | 46.7%71 W · 81 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Darderi | 3c | 2,744$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.03 | 1,107 | 42.8%474 W · 633 L | -20.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61bf…647ebacked Darderi | 1c | 2,700$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 25cpaid | -89.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x03a6…1198backed Darderi | 1c | 2,306$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.92 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d0…5c32backed Darderi | 3c | 2,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 226 | 29.2%66 W · 160 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27a9…8781backed Darderi | 5c | 1,567$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.63 | 154 | 39.6%61 W · 93 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dbe…af34backed Darderi | 2c | 1,267$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.33 | 161 | 40.4%65 W · 96 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9602…4d02backed Darderi | 2c | 1,117$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Darderi | 3c | 931$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Darderi | 4c | 700$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.68 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…c148backed Darderi | 2c | 600$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 157 | 24.8%39 W · 118 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa21d…a769backed Darderi | 6c | 335.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Darderi | 4c | 333.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Darderi | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 173 | 38.7%67 W · 106 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff9…e494backed Darderi | 6c | 157.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 360 | 40%144 W · 216 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.