Valorant · resolved market
Valorant: AGELITE vs Insomnia (BO3) - VCL Japan: Phase 1
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd30362bef8aa3d87741b2661e98e8d7d756f848874eab02c4c5abba2f7806c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Insomniaof AGELITE, Insomnia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Valorantevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,862
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,862 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Valorant is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Valorant | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x10d0…2db3backed Insomnia | 31c | 1,303$404 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.06 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c3e…d6cabacked AGELITE | 69c | 1,300$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a5…c602backed AGELITE | 8c | 1,241$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.88 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed AGELITE | 13c | 1,170$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.33 | 220 | 18.2%40 W · 180 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed AGELITE | 25c | 789.16$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.37 | 1,746 | 46.2%806 W · 940 L | -3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Insomnia | 30c | 399.98$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.99 | 867 | 47.5%412 W · 455 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7802…fa6bbacked AGELITE | 70c | 258.87$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16b8…cdb5backed Insomnia | 72c | 232.74$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.48 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06b5…cab4backed Insomnia | 32c | 188.13$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.12 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 24cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed Insomnia | 66c | 146.28$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.57 | 75 | 65.3%49 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9869…1a45backed AGELITE | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.31per pick | 56cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe01f…ab4abacked Insomnia | 71c | 140.55$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.55 | 254 | 44.9%114 W · 140 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Insomnia | 76c | 128.12$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.25 | 111 | 52.3%58 W · 53 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeca1…57e4backed AGELITE | 42c | 112.54$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c55…84cebacked Insomnia | 31c | 99.97$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.98 | 150 | 42%63 W · 87 L | -4.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed AGELITE | 18c | 94.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.13 | 274 | 11.3%31 W · 243 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x912e…0eaebacked AGELITE | 36c | 90.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.71 | 86 | 34.9%30 W · 56 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed AGELITE | 27c | 89.96$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 109 | 59.6%65 W · 44 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a0a4backed Insomnia | 73c | 82.6$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.6 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e3…770ebacked AGELITE | 69c | 76.09$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked AGELITE | 68c | 75.88$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 348 | 47.4%165 W · 183 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed AGELITE | 20c | 67.31$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 697 | 22.8%159 W · 538 L | -94.4wins | -0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe363…c894backed Insomnia | 31c | 58.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.63 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked AGELITE | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd612…0477backed Insomnia | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21f7…8463backed Insomnia | 32c | 47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +212.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…b2bdbacked AGELITE | 69c | 44.4$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.83 | 149 | 59.7%89 W · 60 L | +11.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe00d…4251backed Insomnia | 80c | 42.52$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…8b57backed AGELITE | 69c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.5wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed AGELITE | 69c | 36.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 636 | 52.7%335 W · 301 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc02f…0614backed AGELITE | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3829…5971backed AGELITE | 70c | 28.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed AGELITE | 69c | 22.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 275 | 46.2%127 W · 148 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…c402backed Insomnia | 70c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fd4…2c20backed AGELITE | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…db89backed AGELITE | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 159 | 52.8%84 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbda…8bd5backed AGELITE | 69c | 19.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 105 | 50.5%53 W · 52 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8058…4cc3backed Insomnia | 72c | 19.44$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 85 | 52.9%45 W · 40 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked AGELITE | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Valorant and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.