Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Oregon vs. Wisconsin
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd37ac259a39f5fe50ff5efc1306d46ecc1b45f2aaea06b6f95f44762cfa992e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oregonof Oregon, Wisconsin
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,135
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,830
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,135 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Oregon | 40c | 1,965$790 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,174.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Wisconsin | 72c | 1,386$994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$993.6 | 284 | 45.1%128 W · 156 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…7b96backed Wisconsin | 55c | 908$499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.4 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed Wisconsin | 56c | 867$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485.52 | 98 | 33.7%33 W · 65 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed Oregon | 41c | 790$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469.76 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c6…34a2backed Wisconsin | 77c | 467$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.59 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +43.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Wisconsin | 78c | 182$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.96 | 429 | 48.5%208 W · 221 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ada…2f28backed Wisconsin | 66c | 142.67$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.83 | 205 | 48.8%100 W · 105 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19f8…98f9backed Wisconsin | 77c | 129.87$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 484 | 62.8%304 W · 180 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Wisconsin | 72c | 120$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.4 | 283 | 35%99 W · 184 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5179…2b29backed Oregon | 44c | 114$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.86 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Wisconsin | 79c | 100$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 605 | 51.4%311 W · 294 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked Oregon | 41c | 85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.59per pick | 41cpaid | +146.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Wisconsin | 57c | 85$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.45 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x312d…6814backed Wisconsin | 45c | 68.98$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 50 | 42%21 W · 29 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af8…9454backed Oregon | 61c | 40.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.77 | 105 | 58.1%61 W · 44 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2686…7a67backed Wisconsin | 78c | 32.05$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 69cpaid | -13%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked Oregon | 44c | 29.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Wisconsin | 76c | 21.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 530 | 57.4%304 W · 226 L | +33.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.