Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tearlaments - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd7a8783894a19e5ca197618515f7da3e0f75ab20290ccc0de7c5ff899b029bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Xtreme Gamingof Xtreme Gaming, Tearlaments
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,930
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,930 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x24d8…e8a8backed Xtreme Gaming | 78c | 5,210$4,042 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,167.86 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 47cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…09eebacked Xtreme Gaming | 75c | 4,935$3,697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,237.9 | 551 | 57%314 W · 237 L | +17.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbe…7d07backed Tearlaments | 23c | 4,033$947 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$947.24 | 254 | 44.5%113 W · 141 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Tearlaments | 26c | 1,281$332 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.41 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…fe28backed Tearlaments | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Xtreme Gaming | 78c | 867.62$680 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.71 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Tearlaments | 23c | 716.13$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.71 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bea…5d50backed Tearlaments | 26c | 653$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.07 | 477 | 48.6%232 W · 245 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Tearlaments | 23c | 652.17$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed Tearlaments | 24c | 637.64$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.53 | 283 | 41%116 W · 167 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bd5…81b0backed Tearlaments | 18c | 559.4$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.69 | 76 | 30.3%23 W · 53 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8031…67e0backed Tearlaments | 18c | 313$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.86 | 737 | 43.6%321 W · 416 L | -10.8wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Tearlaments | 18c | 300$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Tearlaments | 21c | 263.29$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c3…2149backed Xtreme Gaming | 79c | 263.29$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.29 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc0…699abacked Tearlaments | 21c | 200$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 641 | 23.4%150 W · 491 L | -18.6wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe99e…0084backed Tearlaments | 26c | 178.17$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 876 | 45.7%400 W · 476 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Tearlaments | 22c | 107.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.07 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fac…bdd8backed Tearlaments | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 134 | 56%75 W · 59 L | +9.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…f6b4backed Tearlaments | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 82 | 29.3%24 W · 58 L | -7.9wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Tearlaments | 22c | 74.72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 616 | 9.7%60 W · 556 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddd…d755backed Xtreme Gaming | 76c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.74 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tearlaments - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tearlaments (BO3)Xtreme Gaming won
- Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tearlaments - Game 1 WinnerXtreme Gaming won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.