UFC · resolved market
UFC 323: Trocoli vs. Abdul-Malik (Middleweight, Early Prelims)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd8fbb0b9c8145579bbeca32a1cad5ccecfecebd92bcb61f8d1fb01fc2f3b45c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Abdul-Malikof Trocoli, Abdul-Malik
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,702
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,450
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,702 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Trocoli | 9c | 24,816$2,218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,217.91 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Trocoli | 9c | 7,100$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639 | 358 | 26%93 W · 265 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f09…4632backed Trocoli | 8c | 6,722$538 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.74 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Trocoli | 8c | 2,438$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.18 | 124 | 46.8%58 W · 66 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Trocoli | 7c | 2,000$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 420 | 42.6%179 W · 241 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Trocoli | 8c | 1,947$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.29 | 202 | 33.7%68 W · 134 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26cf…c612backed Trocoli | 8c | 1,691$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.3 | 905 | 53.6%485 W · 420 L | +46.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30b8…f41fbacked Trocoli | 10c | 1,500$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.24 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Trocoli | 9c | 1,045$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.08 | 109 | 28.4%31 W · 78 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Trocoli | 8c | 1,000$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 137 | 35.8%49 W · 88 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d52…834ebacked Trocoli | 8c | 971.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.76 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Trocoli | 8c | 776.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Trocoli | 7c | 647.81$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.71 | 201 | 39.8%80 W · 121 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf585…f3a6backed Trocoli | 8c | 622.22$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 26cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b26…c9afbacked Trocoli | 9c | 555.56$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Trocoli | 8c | 460.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 145 | 30.3%44 W · 101 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723c…01ebbacked Trocoli | 10c | 398.64$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.74 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5ef6…8c16backed Trocoli | 11c | 380.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.9 | 113 | 37.2%42 W · 71 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Trocoli | 9c | 219.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8056…b64dbacked Trocoli | 8c | 217.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 261 | 40.6%106 W · 155 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Trocoli | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 515 | 33.6%173 W · 342 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee44…0082backed Trocoli | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda7…3e66backed Trocoli | 9c | 150.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Trocoli | 11c | 149.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 148 | 27%40 W · 108 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab3…5fa4backed Trocoli | 14c | 135.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…2afcbacked Trocoli | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC 323: Trocoli vs. Abdul-Malik (Middleweight, Early Prelims)this page
- Fight to Go the Distance?No won
- O/U 0.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 1.5 RoundsUnder won
- O/U 2.5 RoundsUnder won
- Will Mansur Abdul-Malik win by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by KO or TKO?No won
- Will the fight be won by submission?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.