Earnings · resolved market
Will Marex Group (MRX) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd9078190363fd9ecb180a356ca00dda2f03baaede93758062ab7ccc49d3cc82
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,496
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,628
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,496 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked No | 2c | 658$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | +8.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2535…053fbacked No | 8c | 400$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 35 | 20%7 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ea9…a10bbacked No | 17c | 262.31$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.14 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 674 | 42.7%288 W · 386 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 25c | 151.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 330 | 25.2%83 W · 247 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0a…9229backed Yes | 75c | 133$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 115 | 66.1%76 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefa6…d493backed No | 9c | 115.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54fd…4ac3backed No | 23c | 77.72$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 68 | 67.6%46 W · 22 L | +8.5wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf900…2e68backed Yes | 75c | 66.67$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked Yes | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 80 | 58.8%47 W · 33 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5343…0b0fbacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 117 | 71.8%84 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99c5…0c1abacked Yes | 75c | 33.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.29 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…1b7abacked Yes | 75c | 31.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a5…7d3fbacked Yes | 75c | 26.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.63 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2006…d9aebacked Yes | 75c | 22.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 218 | 61%133 W · 85 L | +11.0wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd4e…c6f3backed Yes | 75c | 19.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.