College Football · resolved market
Spread: UTSA Roadrunners (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdde0acefd61867f1e03c30848ee49afc463c947b81e5dd74fc64765329254110
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- UTSA Roadrunnersof UTSA Roadrunners, Rice
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,376
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,902
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,376 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x04b9…cdaabacked Rice | 56c | 8,555$4,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,775 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…01b4backed UTSA Roadrunners | 48c | 4,230$2,016 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,213.8 | 118 | 46.6%55 W · 63 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Rice | 52c | 3,340$1,736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,736.23 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed UTSA Roadrunners | 45c | 3,176$1,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,762.14 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed UTSA Roadrunners | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 385 | 46%177 W · 208 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Rice | 54c | 699$377 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$377.46 | 261 | 47.9%125 W · 136 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed UTSA Roadrunners | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 178 | 37.6%67 W · 111 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Rice | 52c | 250$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 756 | 51.9%392 W · 364 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Rice | 52c | 195$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc757…f18cbacked UTSA Roadrunners | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 68 | 57.4%39 W · 29 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5f8…1affbacked Rice | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 86 | 45.3%39 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: UTSA Roadrunners (-10.5)this page
- O/U 49.5Over won
- Rice vs. UTSA RoadrunnersUTSA Roadrunners won
- Rice vs. UTSA Roadrunners: O/U 47.5Over won
- Rice vs. UTSA Roadrunners: O/U 48.5Over won
- Spread: UTSA Roadrunners (-12.5)UTSA Roadrunners won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.