Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $380-$390 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdde601f91b40773659510a820a46255181b51f86369d7cd298deb01b422ff4c0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $81,649
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $81,649 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e94…9c83backed Yes | 4c | 4,855$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c08…726cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,303$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc5…5a29backed Yes | 3c | 3,223$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8f…f98abacked Yes | 3c | 2,221$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x742b…be72backed Yes | 3c | 2,028$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76d7…10edbacked Yes | 3c | 1,956$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e8…6c5dbacked Yes | 4c | 1,894$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…ef16backed Yes | 3c | 1,834$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e03…bf97backed Yes | 3c | 1,700$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4454…cc2ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,531$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39e7…7f83backed Yes | 3c | 1,402$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc6…ffc7backed Yes | 3c | 1,380$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf664…8679backed Yes | 3c | 1,300$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfc0…62edbacked Yes | 3c | 1,287$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e8…4aa6backed Yes | 3c | 1,134$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8036backed Yes | 3c | 1,052$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe208…745dbacked Yes | 4c | 956$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x084a…f750backed Yes | 3c | 879$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55f2…ccddbacked Yes | 4c | 852$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x702a…40c8backed Yes | 3c | 849$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d1…b35cbacked Yes | 4c | 801$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ae…84e5backed Yes | 3c | 735$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c15…443fbacked Yes | 4c | 606$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x851e…7539backed Yes | 12c | 229.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.56 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $380-$390 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?this page
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $390-$400 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $400-$410 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $410-$420 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $420-$430 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $430-$440 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.