Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $400-$410 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83d74815a85238b04ea5ab1962c9c40633f144590e8f00da75667c9704b1719b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,858
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,858 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54d7…3463backed Yes | 3c | 2,795$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca00…dc89backed Yes | 3c | 2,635$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e2…ef16backed Yes | 1c | 2,164$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1e8…6c5dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,981$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 5c | 1,904$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.14 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…5510backed Yes | 4c | 1,869$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d1…c910backed Yes | 4c | 1,561$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9093…7787backed Yes | 2c | 1,125$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde17…ad2ebacked Yes | 4c | 937$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081b…e6fcbacked Yes | 4c | 923$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61a7…aba0backed Yes | 4c | 806$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a1e…fefdbacked Yes | 4c | 784$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4454…cc2ebacked Yes | 2c | 782$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70dd…18cfbacked Yes | 2c | 748$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7217…9c40backed Yes | 2c | 678$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…d99abacked Yes | 4c | 670$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefcd…f539backed Yes | 4c | 632$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721b…3846backed Yes | 4c | 584$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ff…0876backed Yes | 4c | 583$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c6e…6529backed Yes | 4c | 567$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba4b…71b2backed Yes | 4c | 492$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 48c | 356.02$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.3 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x059a…782cbacked Yes | 21c | 284.81$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.81 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f75…7233backed No | 79c | 284.81$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.81 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3feb…b1a1backed Yes | 4c | 270$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked No | 50c | 171.26$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.96 | 1,783 | 49%874 W · 909 L | +142.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 17cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 53c | 83.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 519 | 27.6%143 W · 376 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 59$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…d302backed Yes | 19c | 56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8434…92f7backed No | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +224.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfdd1…1829backed Yes | 24c | 42.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.14per pick | 17cpaid | +105.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf877…77e1backed No | 80c | 37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 29 | 86.2%25 W · 4 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…e61cbacked No | 62c | 26.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe73c…dd15backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $400-$410 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?this page
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $380-$390 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $390-$400 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $410-$420 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $420-$430 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $430-$440 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.