UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Loosa
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde70fb6c276d69e6e0f60f6f111f1b296d06d674a27c5712f1164f4e4b223a25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bonfimof Bonfim, Loosa
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $988
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,022
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $988 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Bonfim | 75c | 300$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 171 | 58.5%100 W · 71 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe41a…a42dbacked Loosa | 25c | 226.43$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xccf0…3b75backed Loosa | 42c | 205.58$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb0…e595backed Loosa | 25c | 180$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Bonfim | 63c | 154.25$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…eb52backed Bonfim | 75c | 150$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Bonfim | 60c | 53.59$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x564a…c90ebacked Loosa | 29c | 52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b3c…3ca2backed Loosa | 30c | 36.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ac…7619backed Bonfim | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Loosathis page
- UFC Fight Night: Dober vs. SilvaSilva won
- UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. CortezNamajunas won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.