UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdd07a488b981e646af542944a2dd171ee45ebef0cd4941bd119dc0d077289f66
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Namajunasof Namajunas, Cortez
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,378
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,378 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae1c…5126backed Cortez | 36c | 235.81$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf0…3b75backed Cortez | 44c | 220.92$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…eb52backed Namajunas | 65c | 150$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cb…b857backed Namajunas | 59c | 138.38$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.02 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf33…261fbacked Namajunas | 75c | 132.5$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed Cortez | 31c | 121.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Namajunas | 65c | 101$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.35 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xda88…ee37backed Namajunas | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b55…02f8backed Namajunas | 56c | 77.48$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7941…c675backed Cortez | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1c…5fe8backed Cortez | 33c | 59.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde93…bef4backed Namajunas | 65c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd187…b353backed Namajunas | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcde…e5d9backed Namajunas | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa287…e1e7backed Cortez | 38c | 28.95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb0…e595backed Namajunas | 68c | 23.95$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…629cbacked Namajunas | 65c | 18.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortezthis page
- UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. LoosaBonfim won
- UFC Fight Night: Dober vs. SilvaSilva won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.