Tennis · resolved market
ATP Washington D.C: Arnaldi vs. Sonego
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde89254f8f8a5d8959bb8bcdd6e1f62c8010f1b93d33f93ad055dd9194d34919
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Arnaldiof Arnaldi, Sonego
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,420
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,420 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Arnaldi | 47c | 1,285$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.4 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Arnaldi | 71c | 1,265$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.93 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x447c…9f3ebacked Arnaldi | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Sonego | 53c | 1,000$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 316 | 50%158 W · 158 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce7a…addfbacked Sonego | 54c | 1,000$540 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6417…9151backed Arnaldi | 45c | 1,000$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 46cpaid | +119.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…f7b0backed Sonego | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf3…cc59backed Sonego | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd609…f4c5backed Arnaldi | 46c | 790$363 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc86f…7e92backed Sonego | 55c | 620$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3e59backed Sonego | 33c | 603.36$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed Sonego | 28c | 574.17$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.16 | 321 | 41.1%132 W · 189 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa30d…d31ebacked Arnaldi | 45c | 500$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fc…dbadbacked Arnaldi | 45c | 445$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +77.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2df…5174backed Sonego | 55c | 380$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Sonego | 56c | 357.14$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,056 | 55.4%585 W · 471 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Arnaldi | 44c | 259.97$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.58 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Arnaldi | 47c | 213.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.33 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…6d1abacked Arnaldi | 46c | 210$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Arnaldi | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c43…fb9bbacked Sonego | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Sonego | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Sonego | 52c | 114$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…786fbacked Arnaldi | 68c | 109.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Sonego | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +15.8wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd920…b7b6backed Sonego | 55c | 80$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed Arnaldi | 72c | 55.85$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.43 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49b…83a7backed Arnaldi | 45c | 55$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Sonego | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe68a…5e25backed Arnaldi | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Sonego | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.