Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Texas State Bobcats: O/U 148.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf8d9fb89a7daf4d486d5c8eb352b3e543dc7bf594e37de0c2b27e664c8db9a8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,848
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7234…1d85backed Over | 49c | 3,000$1,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470 | 123 | 58.5%72 W · 51 L | +10.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 49c | 2,224$1,096 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.26 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b47…d615backed Under | 49c | 1,582$771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$811.43 | 740 | 51.5%381 W · 359 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe248…f293backed Over | 52c | 1,398$727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.16 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +38.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 51c | 1,389$707 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$682.85 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…8441backed Over | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 422 | 46.2%195 W · 227 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480 | 113 | 54.9%62 W · 51 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Over | 48c | 708$340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.84 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 51c | 330.3$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.2 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 48c | 314$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.04 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 46c | 121$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.08 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd6a…72e3backed Under | 53c | 91$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -4.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Under | 52c | 78.43$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.28 | 998 | 48.4%483 W · 515 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 50c | 69$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 974 | 47.9%467 W · 507 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c6…5004backed Over | 53c | 56.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.3wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3518…c4aebacked Over | 53c | 56.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.99 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +6.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +35%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 1,162 | 55.2%641 W · 521 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Over | 50c | 47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Texas State Bobcats: O/U 148.5this page
- Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Texas State BobcatsTexas State Bobcats won
- Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Texas State Bobcats: O/U 149.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.