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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Marshall Thundering Herd vs. Texas State Bobcats

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Texas State Bobcatsof Marshall Thundering Herd, Texas State Bobcats
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,668
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$57,739

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,668 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 81 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x17fd…976fbacked Marshall Thundering Herd56c12,700$7,112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,1121844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+63.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe588…7658backed Texas State Bobcats44c12,700$5,588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,1121850%9 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb66…2f53backed Texas State Bobcats41c9,026$3,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,325.8814654.1%79 W · 67 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Marshall Thundering Herd60c6,894$4,147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,147.2612,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Marshall Thundering Herd58c5,359$3,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,089.675,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Texas State Bobcats39c1,927$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.814,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Texas State Bobcats39c1,781$692 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,088.861,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe248…f293backed Texas State Bobcats41c1,500$615 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88578155.6%434 W · 347 L+38.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Texas State Bobcats59c1,409$836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.933,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d98…4d2dbacked Marshall Thundering Herd63c1,327$839 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$839.172759.3%16 W · 11 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Texas State Bobcats38c1,132$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$701.982,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Texas State Bobcats53c1,105$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.346446.8%217 W · 247 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ed1…caa2backed Marshall Thundering Herd47c1,100$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51725325.3%64 W · 189 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-14.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb8…abbebacked Marshall Thundering Herd28c945.89$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.981,98326.4%523 W · 1,460 L-55.5wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7aa8…56dbbacked Marshall Thundering Herd64c930.21$593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.171,05855.8%590 W · 468 L+34.2wins+0.03per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Texas State Bobcats59c767.29$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.351,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc30…c8a5backed Marshall Thundering Herd16c750$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1209037.8%34 W · 56 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-18.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Texas State Bobcats41c742.31$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.961,63347.3%773 W · 860 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x778d…cbe2backed Marshall Thundering Herd60c716$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$429.63135.5%11 W · 20 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Marshall Thundering Herd59c658$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.134,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f3f…5878backed Texas State Bobcats36c620$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39426740.8%109 W · 158 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Marshall Thundering Herd59c574.32$337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.255,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3a8e…b505backed Texas State Bobcats67c516.47$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.7648051%245 W · 235 L-6.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Marshall Thundering Herd59c500$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29542246.2%195 W · 227 L-9.5wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Texas State Bobcats38c475.5$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.432,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xccf1…25a0backed Marshall Thundering Herd39c469.68$183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.1844146.5%205 W · 236 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Marshall Thundering Herd28c452.77$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.6266831.4%210 W · 458 L-43.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-23%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Texas State Bobcats36c427.26$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.453644.4%16 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0370…d000backed Marshall Thundering Herd36c378.51$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.594036.9%347 W · 593 L+8.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Marshall Thundering Herd60c335.35$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20045351.4%233 W · 220 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8415…dfe1backed Marshall Thundering Herd59c306$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.548055%44 W · 36 L+4.3wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Marshall Thundering Herd57c291.23$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16640755.8%227 W · 180 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf00…353fbacked Texas State Bobcats35c286.27$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.168937.1%33 W · 56 L-6.2wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-23.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Marshall Thundering Herd56c222.22$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.441,39752.7%736 W · 661 L+26.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked Marshall Thundering Herd55c222.22$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.2232751.7%169 W · 158 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+14.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2a9b…7303backed Texas State Bobcats45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.2213052.3%68 W · 62 L+6.8wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f19…ec51backed Marshall Thundering Herd42c222$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.0722050.5%111 W · 109 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Marshall Thundering Herd60c207.63$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.2899848.4%483 W · 515 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Marshall Thundering Herd59c190.64$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.481,23147%578 W · 653 L-17.6wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Marshall Thundering Herd56c187$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.072,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8d84…6df0backed Texas State Bobcats51c174.02$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.7853646.5%249 W · 287 L-24.3wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Texas State Bobcats63c154.25$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.51,49348.7%727 W · 766 L-1.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid-19.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefac…c9a1backed Texas State Bobcats38c151$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.6218147%85 W · 96 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fb0…6a9fbacked Marshall Thundering Herd59c148.25$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.473161.3%19 W · 12 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Marshall Thundering Herd59c120$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.83,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x793d…5a89backed Marshall Thundering Herd44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc3e…776bbacked Texas State Bobcats50c110$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5516746.1%77 W · 90 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+11.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2dc4…0c92backed Texas State Bobcats38c105.11$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.1799045.6%451 W · 539 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Texas State Bobcats44c99.99$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$562,19433.4%733 W · 1,461 L+19.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Marshall Thundering Herd62c99.99$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.9934947.9%167 W · 182 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x850a…e5dbbacked Marshall Thundering Herd67c82.82$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4918167.4%122 W · 59 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Texas State Bobcats70c82$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.351,54041.3%636 W · 904 L+4.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Marshall Thundering Herd34c75$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.51,95145.1%880 W · 1,071 L-19.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Texas State Bobcats60c72.85$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.191,98564.1%1,273 W · 712 L+144.2wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc6c6…5004backed Texas State Bobcats42c71.42$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.422343.5%10 W · 13 L-2.3wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-17.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd85…6a32backed Texas State Bobcats46c67.99$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.9615947.2%75 W · 84 L-5.2wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Texas State Bobcats39c66.95$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8437835.7%135 W · 243 L-0.6wins0.00per pick36cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3518…c4aebacked Texas State Bobcats42c62.6$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.313868.4%26 W · 12 L+6.4wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+35%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Marshall Thundering Herd59c58.68$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.92,04832.7%670 W · 1,378 L-16.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94fa…989ebacked Texas State Bobcats38c58.46$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.0581453.1%432 W · 382 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid+3.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Marshall Thundering Herd62c56$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.721,43647.5%682 W · 754 L-18.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1db3…ada1backed Texas State Bobcats39c55$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6435050.3%176 W · 174 L+0.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09d2…cc27backed Texas State Bobcats62c53$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.1436845.7%168 W · 200 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef2e…8d89backed Marshall Thundering Herd57c52.63$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3049849.6%247 W · 251 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a5f…a8a0backed Texas State Bobcats41c48.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.791566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.6wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+30.8%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Marshall Thundering Herd56c41.67$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3425946.3%120 W · 139 L+5.1wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Texas State Bobcats38c39.43$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4558345.5%265 W · 318 L-10.2wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x785f…e3d9backed Marshall Thundering Herd62c37.18$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.0597447.9%467 W · 507 L-2.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Marshall Thundering Herd46c36.04$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.751,66736.4%607 W · 1,060 L-4.0wins0.00per pick37cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd236…a65ebacked Texas State Bobcats42c35.71$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.7117661.4%108 W · 68 L+17.3wins+0.10per pick52cpaid+19.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x72ea…d4f2backed Marshall Thundering Herd62c32.26$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2021746.1%100 W · 117 L-6.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Texas State Bobcats58c32$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.441,07447%505 W · 569 L+1.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2e48…94c4backed Marshall Thundering Herd61c31.55$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fc2…98afbacked Texas State Bobcats40c26.88$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc3a…e1f0backed Texas State Bobcats40c25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1526848.1%129 W · 139 L-5.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Marshall Thundering Herd61c24.19$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7821651.4%111 W · 105 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3494…04f4backed Marshall Thundering Herd63c21.87$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.7810043%43 W · 57 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98ce…cfffbacked Marshall Thundering Herd61c20.37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.520%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfdc6…b20dbacked Marshall Thundering Herd63c20$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.634952.1%182 W · 167 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fff…665bbacked Marshall Thundering Herd56c18.55$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.391729.4%5 W · 12 L-4.1wins-0.24per pick53cpaid-44.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x085d…5302backed Marshall Thundering Herd61c17.14$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4613550.4%68 W · 67 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.