Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs summer bear - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfbde62c602929b3f87e45653b7d3e808a07107a6de5e61ed13352a2f3c9539d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ilbirs eSportsof Ilbirs eSports, summer bear
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,480
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,179
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,480 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc1de…21f5backed Ilbirs eSports | 60c | 4,000$2,400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,599.99 | 304 | 52.3%159 W · 145 L | +20.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed summer bear | 43c | 1,238$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530.09 | 265 | 50.6%134 W · 131 L | +12.0wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x149a…49d0backed Ilbirs eSports | 60c | 981.77$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392.71 | 507 | 69.2%351 W · 156 L | +33.7wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c67…d062backed summer bear | 40c | 702.23$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.56 | 1,137 | 42.3%481 W · 656 L | -27.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d8…c3f8backed summer bear | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3d…51b8backed summer bear | 40c | 445$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ade…fb15backed summer bear | 40c | 409.23$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.69 | 64 | 42.2%27 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed summer bear | 40c | 400$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked summer bear | 40c | 256.25$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.5 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked summer bear | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked summer bear | 40c | 206.38$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.55 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed summer bear | 40c | 190$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f4…81a6backed summer bear | 12c | 166.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 8%4 W · 46 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba46…6ac5backed Ilbirs eSports | 69c | 147.21$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.18 | 52 | 75%39 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed summer bear | 40c | 126.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 340 | 41.2%140 W · 200 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc59f…954ebacked summer bear | 40c | 122.5$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -5.8wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked summer bear | 47c | 105.4$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.42 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked summer bear | 42c | 101.3$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe07b…b7c9backed summer bear | 30c | 100.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.26 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa750…0d0fbacked Ilbirs eSports | 69c | 80$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 377 | 54.9%207 W · 170 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Ilbirs eSports | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.17 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f4…c1e4backed Ilbirs eSports | 58c | 58.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.22 | 426 | 39.4%168 W · 258 L | -39.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb692…7c83backed Ilbirs eSports | 67c | 44.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.78 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde30…3159backed Ilbirs eSports | 70c | 43.51$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked summer bear | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x294b…22d2backed summer bear | 41c | 33.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 156 | 48.7%76 W · 80 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37a8…8b4dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 59c | 33.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 159 | 57.9%92 W · 67 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc869…bc8dbacked summer bear | 57c | 33.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 374 | 41.2%154 W · 220 L | -17.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked summer bear | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6701…d7d2backed summer bear | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 123 | 53.7%66 W · 57 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc37d…e586backed Ilbirs eSports | 74c | 16.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 387 | 59.4%230 W · 157 L | +26.6wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs summer bear - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs summer bear (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsIlbirs eSports won
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs summer bear - Game 1 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
- Game Handicap: ILL (-1.5) vs summer bear (+1.5)Ilbirs eSports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.