NHL · resolved market
AHL: Rockford IceHogs vs. Chicago Wolves
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdfe013399d34d6bfe0e7e341f91a7623fee114d62a2c8e2a88758b50dc787ae7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Rockford IceHogsof Rockford IceHogs, Chicago Wolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,187
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,187 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Chicago Wolves | 61c | 3,844$2,345 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,344.89 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Rockford IceHogs | 39c | 778$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.58 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x622b…5a4abacked Rockford IceHogs | 39c | 500$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305 | 124 | 48.4%60 W · 64 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x009b…e769backed Rockford IceHogs | 39c | 407.69$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.69 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | -3.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Rockford IceHogs | 39c | 307.7$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.7 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…29dcbacked Rockford IceHogs | 39c | 260$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.6 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 50cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xae60…1f06backed Rockford IceHogs | 39c | 232.56$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.86 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked Rockford IceHogs | 39c | 232.13$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.6 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea9e…d3fbbacked Rockford IceHogs | 39c | 150$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.5 | 292 | 41.1%120 W · 172 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Rockford IceHogs | 39c | 117.95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.95 | 42 | 40.5%17 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…3afdbacked Rockford IceHogs | 39c | 105.13$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.13 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Rockford IceHogs | 39c | 105$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.05 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x800b…152abacked Rockford IceHogs | 39c | 93.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.76 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Chicago Wolves | 63c | 79.41$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 113 | 45.1%51 W · 62 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Rockford IceHogs | 37c | 76.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.1 | 831 | 49.5%411 W · 420 L | -9.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Rockford IceHogs | 39c | 64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.04 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd2…9e07backed Rockford IceHogs | 39c | 49.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.11 | 145 | 51%74 W · 71 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Rockford IceHogs | 39c | 42.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.81 | 174 | 42.5%74 W · 100 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Rockford IceHogs | 39c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.4 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…a253backed Rockford IceHogs | 39c | 36.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.38 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8087…6d7abacked Rockford IceHogs | 39c | 34.13$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked Rockford IceHogs | 39c | 26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 179 | 40.2%72 W · 107 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.