Champions League · resolved market
Club Atlético de Madrid leading at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe068c6e6c1d444daa9405acf816e688015739656bfd03ba2e706dba8b3d3264f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,268 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed No | 57c | 1,593$914 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$914.49 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Yes | 45c | 1,109$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.95 | 89 | 38.2%34 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 57c | 461$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.77 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 58c | 430.01$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.41 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…c4ffbacked Yes | 43c | 400$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.36 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 44c | 351.34$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.08 | 1,994 | 43.9%875 W · 1,119 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes | 42c | 250$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 403 | 50.9%205 W · 198 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 57c | 249.72$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.19 | 607 | 48.4%294 W · 313 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 43c | 228.09$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.78 | 260 | 47.7%124 W · 136 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x345d…4e41backed Yes | 43c | 218.09$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.31 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.24per pick | 48cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Yes | 42c | 164.5$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.61 | 158 | 47.5%75 W · 83 L | +7.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92fc…2f25backed No | 57c | 160$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.28per pick | 48cpaid | -68%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 56c | 154$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.24 | 502 | 47.2%237 W · 265 L | -8.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 43c | 150$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 95 | 50.5%48 W · 47 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Yes | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.28 | 107 | 60.7%65 W · 42 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed No | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.49 | 80 | 51.3%41 W · 39 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed Yes | 43c | 68.15$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.85 | 57 | 59.6%34 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 43c | 53.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.92 | 76 | 35.5%27 W · 49 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x576c…f218backed No | 58c | 50$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 101 | 64.4%65 W · 36 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5810…ae81backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23c0…77babacked No | 58c | 36.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0154…30f7backed Yes | 45c | 33.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x562a…14a5backed No | 59c | 19.93$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7df…8d44backed No | 59c | 18.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.