Mls · resolved market
Austin FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe07af2ce3a2dec486c23855c30991c4355d0aff876ffb60aeaf2761946093e48
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,510
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,510 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 1,802$929 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$873.33 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbffe…e4efbacked Over | 35c | 1,000$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0def…4ddbbacked Over | 60c | 1,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c16…4b37backed Under | 65c | 991.93$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.18 | 36 | 63.9%23 W · 13 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Over | 17c | 909.99$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.7 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 55c | 669.16$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.98 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00a0…bf76backed Over | 25c | 499.99$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b2…5f43backed Over | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 39cpaid | +51.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x418b…a741backed Over | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 97 | 58.8%57 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd9…51d0backed Over | 41c | 121.93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1080…142abacked Over | 43c | 119.26$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 46c | 100$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 132 | 43.9%58 W · 74 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Over | 39c | 98.9$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -31%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9075…cfe8backed Over | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 42.1%32 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ca…5829backed Over | 26c | 80.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f2c…9d16backed Over | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.9wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Over | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa87b…968bbacked Over | 39c | 61.54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 21 | 19%4 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 64c | 60.94$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 76cpaid | -24%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 43c | 56.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.39 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Over | 64c | 50.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04cf…d902backed Over | 39c | 33.33$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd6…a082backed Over | 74c | 31.08$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb632…07babacked Over | 52c | 28.91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +100%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…9691backed Over | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf158…aa4bbacked Under | 56c | 20.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 70c | 14.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 263 | 45.2%119 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Austin FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 1.5this page
- Austin FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: D.C. United SC (-2.5)Austin FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.