Mls · resolved market

Austin FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb4d6f9cc71b02c8d11a70f000a4105e06583ca5ae382ae0ff4013ff2878af735

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Mar 1, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $61,999
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $62,000

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,999 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Mls
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xdb22…6478backed Under	53c	58,445$30,975 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27,469.38	156	47.4%74 W · 82 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	+4.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x934e…e7c0backed Over	47c	11,349$5,334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,334	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.22per pick	53cpaid	+37.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf059…6dd9backed Over	47c	6,745$3,170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,170	49	42.9%21 W · 28 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef21…3dc9backed Over	47c	6,193$2,911 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,910.6	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-4.3wins	-0.31per pick	52cpaid	-63%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Over	47c	5,660$2,660 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,660	89	46.1%41 W · 48 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Over	47c	5,046$2,372 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,371.74	36	63.9%23 W · 13 L	+2.7wins	+0.07per pick	57cpaid	+16.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over	47c	3,100$1,457 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,457	153	41.2%63 W · 90 L	-14.0wins	-0.09per pick	50cpaid	-24%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xea00…c1f1backed Over	47c	2,500$1,175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,175	50	54%27 W · 23 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4435…0840backed Over	47c	2,128$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-2.0wins	-0.17per pick	50cpaid	-33.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4440…f8fdbacked Over	47c	2,028$953 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$953	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	46cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over	47c	1,917$901 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900.85	777	51.7%402 W · 375 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked Over	47c	1,500$705 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$705	52	51.9%27 W · 25 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Over	14c	1,306$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.27	38	34.2%13 W · 25 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Over	47c	1,276$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$599.72	133	47.4%63 W · 70 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over	47c	1,145$533 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$532.75	3,012	43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L	-29.7wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x773c…cf18backed Over	47c	1,063$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499.74	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.47per pick	47cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over	47c	775.26$364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$364.37	429	47.1%202 W · 227 L	-6.8wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa990…5f1dbacked Over	46c	664.54$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.69	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	42cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over	47c	499$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.53	206	48.5%100 W · 106 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+13%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1080…142abacked Over	28c	357.11$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.99	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.08per pick	37cpaid	-6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f2b…d743backed Over	49c	333.94$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.8	31	12.9%4 W · 27 L	-4.5wins	-0.15per pick	27cpaid	-53.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Over	47c	232.62$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.33	118	54.2%64 W · 54 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Over	47c	135$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.45	86	53.5%46 W · 40 L	-3.2wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	78c	125.22$97 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.06	263	45.2%119 W · 144 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Over	47c	115$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.05	56	51.8%29 W · 27 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	55cpaid	-9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Over	47c	112$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.64	46	56.5%26 W · 20 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x939d…3b3cbacked Over	49c	110$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.9	84	46.4%39 W · 45 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under	65c	110$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38.5	871	54.6%476 W · 395 L	+34.2wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3880…ab7dbacked Over	46c	108.7$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	46	45.7%21 W · 25 L	-3.7wins	-0.08per pick	54cpaid	-12.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Over	47c	103$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.41	124	51.6%64 W · 60 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Over	47c	100$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	62	56.5%35 W · 27 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Over	21c	100$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.06	132	43.9%58 W · 74 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	46cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c16…c36fbacked Over	35c	100$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	33	30.3%10 W · 23 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Over	47c	90$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.3	55	56.4%31 W · 24 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	57cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Over	47c	90$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.3	51	54.9%28 W · 23 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	55cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Over	47c	84$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.48	371	38.8%144 W · 227 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc16f…0f4fbacked Over	47c	75$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.25	62	56.5%35 W · 27 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over	47c	73.06$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.34	196	57.1%112 W · 84 L	+4.5wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20c7…bc23backed Over	50c	65.78$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	51cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Over	47c	60$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.2	54	51.9%28 W · 26 L	-2.7wins	-0.05per pick	57cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Over	47c	60$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.2	53	52.8%28 W · 25 L	-2.0wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Over	47c	60$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.2	50	56%28 W · 22 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	58cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Over	47c	60$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.2	48	54.2%26 W · 22 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Over	47c	60$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.2	51	49%25 W · 26 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	54cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa800…cc71backed Over	47c	60$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.2	49	53.1%26 W · 23 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Over	47c	60$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.2	50	46%23 W · 27 L	-4.5wins	-0.09per pick	55cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Over	47c	60$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.2	53	52.8%28 W · 25 L	-2.3wins	-0.04per pick	57cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2692…2698backed Over	47c	60$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.2	51	52.9%27 W · 24 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd2a2…004abacked Over	47c	60$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.2	49	51%25 W · 24 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Over	47c	59.25$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.75	259	34.4%89 W · 170 L	-28.1wins	-0.11per pick	45cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0xf497…5ce0backed Over	37c	56.76$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	87	39.1%34 W · 53 L	-4.5wins	-0.05per pick	44cpaid	-1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over	36c	52.31$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.71	1,880	36.6%688 W · 1,192 L	-7.3wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2025…db59backed Over	47c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	51	52.9%27 W · 24 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	58cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x46af…1f6abacked Over	47c	50$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	15	40%6 W · 9 L	-2.3wins	-0.15per pick	55cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd03b…856cbacked Over	47c	40$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.8	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-2.9wins	-0.19per pick	52cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Over	47c	39.62$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.62	139	50.4%70 W · 69 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x38d5…865bbacked Under	55c	36.06$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.06	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.45per pick	55cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x02f4…4effbacked Over	47c	34.2$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.07	20	55%11 W · 9 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15ee…512dbacked Over	47c	32$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.04	89	42.7%38 W · 51 L	-7.8wins	-0.09per pick	51cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x52ca…54f0backed Over	47c	31$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.57	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+1.3wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+44.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6afd…5cb1backed Over	47c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.1	47	55.3%26 W · 21 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	56cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x778e…ccd1backed Over	47c	30$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.1	56	53.6%30 W · 26 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf158…aa4bbacked Over	47c	29.79$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	19	57.9%11 W · 8 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Over	47c	27.67$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	58	50%29 W · 29 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc353…30a8backed Over	47c	25.3$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.89	35	42.9%15 W · 20 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-4.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bdf…8adabacked Over	47c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.75	50	58%29 W · 21 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea2e…d695backed Over	47c	25$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.75	53	54.7%29 W · 24 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	58cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Austin FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 2.5this page
Austin FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 1.5Under won
Spread: D.C. United SC (-2.5)Austin FC won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Austin FC vs. D.C. United SC: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event