Fifa International · resolved market
Will Romania vs. San Marino end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe122cd80e3aaeba629f5bfb979497a4cbaa220539d32ee248cca29dc62e3bbf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,330
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5eb0…5012backed Yes | 2c | 13,900$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.49 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | +6.4wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc48…e792backed Yes | 3c | 4,916$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.78 | 60 | 21.7%13 W · 47 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a4…fca5backed Yes | 4c | 4,554$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 2c | 3,291$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.66 | 236 | 22%52 W · 184 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,265$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.56 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 4c | 1,938$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.7 | 300 | 31%93 W · 207 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 3c | 1,524$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.71 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70b0…b71fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,040$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 62 | 22.6%14 W · 48 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd538…317cbacked Yes | 3c | 647.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 112 | 17%19 W · 93 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 16cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe923…0779backed Yes | 3c | 629.63$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Yes | 2c | 616.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 224 | 21%47 W · 177 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25ca…f5e6backed Yes | 3c | 595.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b51…da79backed Yes | 4c | 543.45$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.74 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Yes | 3c | 536$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 789 | 27.5%217 W · 572 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88de…1091backed Yes | 3c | 518.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 210 | 16.7%35 W · 175 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2e7…40c2backed Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8f…6b61backed Yes | 3c | 397.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 96 | 33.3%32 W · 64 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 82 | 26.8%22 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Romania vs. San Marino end in a draw?this page
- Will Romania win on 2025-11-18?Yes won
- Will San Marino win on 2025-11-18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.