World Politics · resolved market
Will Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML) win less than 20 seats in Nepal’s 2026 House of Representatives election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe168c9e688f120e8f5cfc9b7561275af7196824bc2005e4955d660cb09c5274a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $89,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $89,704 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ab5…e123backed Yes | 52c | 38,800$20,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,176 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x744e…4c43backed No | 48c | 38,800$18,624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,176 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5c…8b52backed Yes | 13c | 1,428$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1d…aa8abacked Yes | 3c | 936.17$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4a…238ebacked Yes | 17c | 712.83$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 2c | 586.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb9c…e1f6backed Yes | 40c | 251.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.64 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4f0…380fbacked Yes | 12c | 219$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +52.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddd…51c6backed Yes | 5c | 212.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…356abacked Yes | 6c | 201$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43da…01a8backed Yes | 14c | 109$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9c…a44ebacked Yes | 12c | 97.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd32a…23c1backed Yes | 45c | 43.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4540…dc3abacked Yes | 46c | 22.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab6a…735abacked No | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML) win less than 20 seats in Nepal’s 2026 House of Representatives election?this page
- Will Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML) win 60 or more seats in Nepal’s 2026 House of Representatives election?No won
- Will Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML) win between 20 and 29 seats in Nepal’s 2026 House of Representatives election?Yes won
- Will Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML) win between 30 and 39 seats in Nepal’s 2026 House of Representatives election?No won
- Will Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML) win between 40 and 49 seats in Nepal’s 2026 House of Representatives election?No won
- Will Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML) win between 50 and 59 seats in Nepal’s 2026 House of Representatives election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.