World Politics · resolved market
Will Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML) win between 20 and 29 seats in Nepal’s 2026 House of Representatives election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3df24e00ac1bc5563e3875687966f728a69f2354e47dcafb4ca990afa24f749d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $94,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $94,777 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ab5…e123backed No | 49c | 39,500$19,355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,355 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.36per pick | 56cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x744e…4c43backed Yes | 51c | 39,500$20,145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,355 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.2wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5c…8b52backed Yes | 30c | 990.06$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 74c | 956.39$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.07 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceaa…65b4backed Yes | 43c | 743.42$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +130.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f75…0b45backed Yes | 51c | 589.74$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 30c | 327.93$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.27 | 45 | 15.6%7 W · 38 L | -4.4wins | -0.10per pick | 25cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e1…e46fbacked Yes | 46c | 286.61$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.13 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.59 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 106 | 52.8%56 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 33c | 104$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.71 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Yes | 23c | 60.46$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.48 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 64c | 58$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.62 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f28…2785backed Yes | 28c | 48.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML) win between 20 and 29 seats in Nepal’s 2026 House of Representatives election?this page
- Will Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML) win 60 or more seats in Nepal’s 2026 House of Representatives election?No won
- Will Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML) win between 30 and 39 seats in Nepal’s 2026 House of Representatives election?No won
- Will Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML) win between 40 and 49 seats in Nepal’s 2026 House of Representatives election?No won
- Will Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML) win between 50 and 59 seats in Nepal’s 2026 House of Representatives election?No won
- Will Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) (CPN-UML) win less than 20 seats in Nepal’s 2026 House of Representatives election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.