Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on February 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe1eac052db4222a748a73d06cccddc21d0fb51f4ff24f85eab053bf3ec14db07
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,396
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,618
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,396 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe693…dd17backed Yes | 75c | 469.36$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.07 | 278 | 41%114 W · 164 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 32c | 282.13$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.2 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 12c | 245.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.7 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff29…f008backed Yes | 51c | 239.09$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.3 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +13.9wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa888…d805backed Yes | 8c | 214.37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.37 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff78…df44backed Yes | 52c | 192.71$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.61 | 66 | 75.8%50 W · 16 L | +16.2wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +76.5%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 13c | 146.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b18…b5eebacked Yes | 63c | 143$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.32 | 54 | 37%20 W · 34 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1e…cc93backed Yes | 64c | 119.6$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 130 | 58.5%76 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 42c | 98.81$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe17b…6f98backed No | 65c | 97.38$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.99 | 101 | 50.5%51 W · 50 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 69.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.59 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 62c | 68.4$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 32c | 59.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 47c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 59c | 34.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd35c…0d5dbacked Yes | 53c | 28.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.30per pick | 50cpaid | +791.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Yes | 53c | 18.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked Yes | 68c | 16.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0130…fb49backed Yes | 73c | 14.09$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 665 | 43.6%290 W · 375 L | +25.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 31°C on February 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C or below on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 32°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C on February 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 35°C or higher on February 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.