Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe20f811a00994edd294ac9256e7150b97d57c4d199363aba8e874dbb60be33f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,554
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,554 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 43c | 380.95$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe188…197bbacked Yes | 40c | 170.89$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.54 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc8…2389backed Yes | 71c | 137.62$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.57 | 171 | 56.7%97 W · 74 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 119.81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.85 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 114.29$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.65 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 43c | 99.99$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 56c | 99.54$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.52 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 39c | 94.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.5 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 27c | 75.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa96d…7553backed No | 27c | 72.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 51c | 71.32$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 62c | 70.34$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 71c | 69.37$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 45c | 67.87$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.35 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 57.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 29c | 57.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.94 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 46c | 55.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.28 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 23c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…062dbacked Yes | 57c | 53.49$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.85 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999c…78d5backed No | 59c | 50.41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 69c | 49.43$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 71c | 49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed No | 70c | 43.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 42.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 41c | 40.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x045c…c74abacked Yes | 45c | 38.45$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c31…68a1backed No | 59c | 37.22$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.91 | 195 | 47.2%92 W · 103 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc2bf…511abacked No | 56c | 34.05$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 55c | 33.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.99 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 46c | 32.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 70c | 30.54$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.06 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa054…a95dbacked Yes | 43c | 29.43$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 399 | 66.2%264 W · 135 L | +33.6wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5da1…a003backed Yes | 50c | 27.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.06 | 171 | 38.6%66 W · 105 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5499…cf6dbacked Yes | 44c | 27.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 250 | 37.6%94 W · 156 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 48c | 26.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 40c | 26.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 55c | 25.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 72c | 25.11$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.08 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x747a…f334backed Yes | 46c | 24.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe314…3c94backed No | 72c | 20.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9897…eb2abacked No | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2869…527dbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 937 | 34.9%327 W · 610 L | -203.5wins | -0.22per pick | 57cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0c64…be43backed No | 76c | 19.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 144 | 61.8%89 W · 55 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…0397backed No | 76c | 15.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.78 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.