Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on April 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x27a223dea34d8488a658fa5e67438508f3a650a1710300aaad73fa9dab71194c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,383
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 32c | 265.81$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.85 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 37c | 207.32$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.18 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x658b…062dbacked Yes | 67c | 187.75$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.71 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 153.74$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 38c | 115.07$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d70…cc5ebacked No | 66c | 103.38$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.71 | 156 | 66%103 W · 53 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 43c | 100.6$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.98 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 61c | 100.1$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.51 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 35c | 87.37$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.21 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 15c | 78.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked No | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 49c | 72.41$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.17 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 28c | 68.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.96 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x440c…8dccbacked Yes | 38c | 55.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.05 | 96 | 35.4%34 W · 62 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 50.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa552…3306backed Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…0b95backed No | 58c | 49.51$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.77 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f1…fc8bbacked Yes | 35c | 47.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2a…ba61backed No | 62c | 46.7$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 42c | 42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb934…57ebbacked Yes | 36c | 41.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 75 | 41.3%31 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0032…e886backed Yes | 36c | 40.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 135 | 37.8%51 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdda5…830dbacked No | 61c | 34.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 38c | 34.01$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 36c | 32.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 54c | 27.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 60c | 27.58$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38ba…bcf9backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 46c | 24.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c1…bec3backed Yes | 67c | 23.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0adb…9eb8backed No | 62c | 20.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 62c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 24°C on April 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 21°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 22°C on April 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on April 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on April 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.