Crypto Milestones · resolved market
Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 in October?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2342819f447eb29ccef0a1afe70cc47455237e9e94b44918c55c444145e303a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Crypto Milestonesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Crypto Milestones is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1378…2508backed Yes | 4c | 854.49$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd685…8be9backed No | 73c | 843.16$615 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.26 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8e51…3e80backed Yes | 31c | 711.65$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.7 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -2.0wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14b2…2642backed Yes | 6c | 307.54$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 18 | 0%0 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7313…9915backed Yes | 5c | 303.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a8b…6fc5backed No | 79c | 298.99$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.84 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +5.0wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd38a…4832backed Yes | 10c | 258.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b24…2440backed Yes | 28c | 180$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…1d13backed No | 69c | 78.34$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.91 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed No | 66c | 65.99$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 51 | 70.6%36 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x444e…cb66backed Yes | 28c | 41.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x160f…3539backed No | 73c | 15.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.02 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 71cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Crypto Milestones and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.35 in October?this page
- Will Dogecoin dip to $0.15 in October?Yes won
- Will Dogecoin dip to $0.20 in October?Yes won
- Will Dogecoin reach $0.30 in October?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.