MLB · resolved market
Blue Jays vs. Yankees
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe27412e7eb31a78f5e0ddcc51f22911663c3dc647698c40809af1364b616d03d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yankeesof Blue Jays, Yankees
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,356
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,262
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,356 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed Yankees | 65c | 8,268$5,362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,906.48 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Blue Jays | 36c | 6,742$2,404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,403.57 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a0…88eebacked Blue Jays | 41c | 2,871$1,188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,188.2 | 283 | 48.8%138 W · 145 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Yankees | 59c | 2,219$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$913.61 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Blue Jays | 35c | 1,963$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.63 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5be…7c6ebacked Blue Jays | 50c | 1,809$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -5.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yankees | 57c | 1,250$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$534.08 | 513 | 34.5%177 W · 336 L | -31.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf62d…d3a0backed Yankees | 66c | 909.09$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.09 | 150 | 50%75 W · 75 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0360…7be1backed Blue Jays | 30c | 770.84$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.38 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf730…3de2backed Blue Jays | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 131 | 51.9%68 W · 63 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Blue Jays | 36c | 555.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 917 | 49.9%458 W · 459 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff5c…ccbdbacked Blue Jays | 36c | 555.56$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11d7…52e1backed Blue Jays | 37c | 514.03$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.67 | 809 | 55.5%449 W · 360 L | +12.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yankees | 64c | 505.04$323 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.81 | 1,212 | 52.1%631 W · 581 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e42…9003backed Blue Jays | 43c | 494$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.42 | 432 | 50.7%219 W · 213 L | +10.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yankees | 64c | 312.5$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.5 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b6d…5f97backed Yankees | 56c | 177.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.59 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yankees | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76bc…009fbacked Blue Jays | 10c | 107$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yankees | 53c | 106.52$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.06 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18f6…b00bbacked Yankees | 64c | 78.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.13 | 118 | 59.3%70 W · 48 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Blue Jays | 37c | 77.85$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 375 | 52.5%197 W · 178 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…73c3backed Blue Jays | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 295 | 52.2%154 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yankees | 65c | 45.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.88 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0624…017dbacked Yankees | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 266 | 51.1%136 W · 130 L | -16.0wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb0…c865backed Blue Jays | 34c | 30.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 219 | 41.1%90 W · 129 L | -19.8wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…c94fbacked Blue Jays | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 52cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…d9bcbacked Blue Jays | 36c | 28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 45cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…f52abacked Yankees | 64c | 15.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed Yankees | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.