MLB · resolved market
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe27a1fa96403b0786de59c442da299aa1a242de4db419fa1393082ba081a6809
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,689
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,689 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed Yes | 49c | 791.3$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$405.26 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Yes | 50c | 731.76$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.22 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked No | 51c | 605.15$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.63 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02f0…9bb3backed No | 28c | 565.99$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.54 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed No | 50c | 545.9$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$271.45 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e7…91a2backed No | 6c | 499.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed Yes | 66c | 421$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.19 | 267 | 62.2%166 W · 101 L | +43.9wins | +0.16per pick | 46cpaid | +58%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e6…4c4ebacked No | 3c | 397.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a76…3c34backed No | 52c | 162.38$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.44 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39af…dd9dbacked No | 9c | 113.74$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 37c | 80$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb9f…65ffbacked No | 53c | 56.04$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed No | 51c | 27.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.94 | 138 | 58.7%81 W · 57 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked No | 49c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 1,814 | 49.1%891 W · 923 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b2…157cbacked No | 52c | 24.48$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 147 | 50.3%74 W · 73 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x148b…4ce7backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubsthis page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago CubsDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.