MLB · resolved market
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x41262e861300c430ee262d0d53854f100f7f106a173d5bb5f664f3422403201f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,505
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,513
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,505 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 54c | 2,790$1,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,506.47 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 46c | 2,185$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.12 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa283…61e5backed Over | 54c | 2,000$1,080 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,079.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 1,577$725 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$851.58 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30c1…9f91backed Under | 46c | 1,104$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.03 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8400…274cbacked Over | 51c | 982.78$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 10c | 888$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.76 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Under | 72c | 758.66$547 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.02 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 49c | 721.81$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.35 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 41c | 598.18$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.94 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 77c | 514$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.16 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 32c | 500$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$340 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Over | 55c | 300$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 592 | 52.7%312 W · 280 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 45c | 278$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.9 | 1,884 | 53%998 W · 886 L | +16.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked Over | 51c | 258.6$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.64 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Under | 75c | 182.53$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.63 | 453 | 58.7%266 W · 187 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 46c | 131.82$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.23 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 44c | 105.36$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c3b…07c9backed Under | 49c | 75.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.04 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 50c | 64.66$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Under | 47c | 52.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 527 | 50.1%264 W · 263 L | +19.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 54c | 52$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 56c | 35.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 44c | 30.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 1,586 | 48.5%770 W · 816 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Under | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 1,819 | 49.3%896 W · 923 L | -24.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 59c | 24.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 74c | 21.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 2,172 | 39.9%866 W · 1,306 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5this page
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago CubsDetroit Tigers won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 6.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5Under won
- Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago CubsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.