Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Natus Vincere (BO1)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2bb097f97ec04422a38791379e1b3995f1be9fd252ca82f38f0a04d966c18c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Natus Vincere
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,483
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,483 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 10 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb3dd…a7e0backed Team Falcons | 72c | 2,311$1,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.76 | 131 | 55%72 W · 59 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Natus Vincere | 28c | 2,310$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$635.6 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7032…0a8bbacked Natus Vincere | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 552 | 51.6%285 W · 267 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Natus Vincere | 26c | 192.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 779 | 41.1%320 W · 459 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d9…4d8bbacked Team Falcons | 74c | 176.66$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.13 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 60cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Natus Vincere | 25c | 133$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.25 | 341 | 46.6%159 W · 182 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…3987backed Team Falcons | 75c | 133$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d0…246ebacked Natus Vincere | 35c | 34.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a78…add7backed Team Falcons | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 364 | 42.3%154 W · 210 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c6…fbd3backed Team Falcons | 76c | 13.45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.