Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Army Black Knights vs. Marshall Thundering Herd (W)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe2d218bc2081402f88635468570987cc2a9ee7b40185e2e6719d3dd0ffb1d195
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marshall Thundering Herdof Army Black Knights, Marshall Thundering Herd
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,340
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,306
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,340 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x700a…58a5backed Army Black Knights | 2c | 793.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 44c | 593.19$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.35 | 68 | 58.8%40 W · 28 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 43c | 542.3$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.89 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Army Black Knights | 53c | 438.77$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.04 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Army Black Knights | 58c | 318.83$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.51 | 1,667 | 36.4%607 W · 1,060 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5625…6c2abacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 60c | 164.27$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.71 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x388a…9a69backed Army Black Knights | 47c | 130.17$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf32f…b708backed Army Black Knights | 79c | 130.03$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bff…267ebacked Army Black Knights | 54c | 117$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.18 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ec3…34a7backed Army Black Knights | 59c | 104.18$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.51 | 191 | 47.6%91 W · 100 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Army Black Knights | 52c | 94.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 536 | 35.6%191 W · 345 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Army Black Knights | 34c | 89.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc064…6fa8backed Army Black Knights | 57c | 86.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.26 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x523e…3128backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 64c | 77.05$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Army Black Knights | 57c | 73.9$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.12 | 227 | 56.4%128 W · 99 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 47c | 73.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.54 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56a2…57b8backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 57c | 69.14$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb213…49e1backed Army Black Knights | 55c | 66.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -5.5wins | -0.17per pick | 55cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…1d57backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 63c | 62.31$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.86 | 19 | 89.5%17 W · 2 L | +3.3wins | +0.17per pick | 72cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 46c | 59.05$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.04 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8566…5b98backed Army Black Knights | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Army Black Knights | 57c | 46.31$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 194 | 54.6%106 W · 88 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Army Black Knights | 49c | 45.44$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.46 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e5…1ea5backed Army Black Knights | 59c | 44.25$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.02 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2045…c77cbacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 56c | 39.41$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 46 | 69.6%32 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x429a…7745backed Army Black Knights | 58c | 31.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf84…d933backed Marshall Thundering Herd | 46c | 29.08$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -56.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x550d…f1ffbacked Marshall Thundering Herd | 60c | 28.89$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.