NHL · resolved market
SHL: Roegle vs. HV 71
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe32f40774c7025897729116c52257fac61cce352fcc02a10b96d5a8b3033f017
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Roegleof Roegle, HV 71
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,951
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,951 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x683e…df7fbacked HV 71 | 22c | 4,750$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…8015backed HV 71 | 22c | 3,600$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c5…f6d0backed Roegle | 78c | 1,000$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…7eebbacked Roegle | 78c | 900$702 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49e3…1951backed Roegle | 78c | 700$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…0faabacked Roegle | 78c | 700$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23e9…af61backed Roegle | 78c | 700$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d36…18a9backed Roegle | 78c | 650$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…d0babacked Roegle | 78c | 650$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d45…4418backed Roegle | 78c | 600$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b18…84f7backed Roegle | 78c | 600$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x709b…0a2dbacked Roegle | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41c…20f9backed Roegle | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x434c…0536backed Roegle | 78c | 500$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42ff…8775backed Roegle | 78c | 350$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…d102backed HV 71 | 23c | 219.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 492 | 49.6%244 W · 248 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20e5…082abacked Roegle | 77c | 209.37$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.86 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed HV 71 | 22c | 89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3fa2…6f8cbacked HV 71 | 22c | 67$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…6746backed Roegle | 78c | 38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.36 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4889…9b17backed Roegle | 78c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf86a…9ed1backed Roegle | 78c | 29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeaa…80cdbacked Roegle | 78c | 27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf33d…1969backed Roegle | 78c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2382…4628backed Roegle | 71c | 20.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ef…39b6backed Roegle | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Roegle | 67c | 17.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 224 | 43.3%97 W · 127 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.