Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: ALIS VENTORUS vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe342bb798a5542b7ad0feb688485b03334bd568e441d4305e19779348ae2db45
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- L1ga Teamof ALIS VENTORUS, L1ga Team
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,331
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,331 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked L1ga Team | 72c | 3,129$2,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.45 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x913c…39b3backed ALIS VENTORUS | 25c | 2,243$565 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$565.34 | 714 | 54.5%389 W · 325 L | +55.6wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 31c | 1,530$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.41 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…05aebacked ALIS VENTORUS | 32c | 750$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 153 | 42.5%65 W · 88 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86c8…fc02backed ALIS VENTORUS | 24c | 508.09$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.4 | 306 | 47.4%145 W · 161 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…1160backed L1ga Team | 66c | 439.41$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.4 | 148 | 54.7%81 W · 67 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked L1ga Team | 76c | 364$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.36 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed ALIS VENTORUS | 7c | 282.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked L1ga Team | 68c | 271.68$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.94 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked ALIS VENTORUS | 33c | 243.12$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.81 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c8…3b6cbacked L1ga Team | 73c | 176.82$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.63 | 913 | 56.1%512 W · 401 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked L1ga Team | 64c | 79.38$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…d6d8backed ALIS VENTORUS | 24c | 79.33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 208 | 58.7%122 W · 86 L | +22.1wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1193…d9c4backed ALIS VENTORUS | 26c | 49.37$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 78 | 59%46 W · 32 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked L1ga Team | 68c | 39.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked L1ga Team | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 122 | 63.9%78 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked L1ga Team | 75c | 16.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.08 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: ALIS VENTORUS vs L1ga Team - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: ALIS VENTORUS vs L1ga Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Group BL1ga Team won
- Dota 2: ALIS VENTORUS vs L1ga Team - Game 1 WinnerL1ga Team won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.