Tennis · resolved market
Madrid: Nicolas Jarry vs Miguel Damas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe34e1ef6cd87ebc67fbabc4f6227cdfcf49694ac9b27bed8582fe353c8e64e8d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nicolas Jarryof Nicolas Jarry, Miguel Damas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,417
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,417 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Miguel Damas | 15c | 7,016$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.4 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2b…9ff9backed Miguel Damas | 31c | 560.59$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.78 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +4.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Miguel Damas | 30c | 280.81$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.24 | 281 | 41.6%117 W · 164 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Miguel Damas | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 868 | 35.4%307 W · 561 L | +22.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f65…c1d0backed Miguel Damas | 32c | 161.15$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.57 | 303 | 49.8%151 W · 152 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84bd…34d0backed Miguel Damas | 33c | 145.43$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.99 | 108 | 29.6%32 W · 76 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b64…a351backed Nicolas Jarry | 69c | 143.65$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.53 | 352 | 68.2%240 W · 112 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Nicolas Jarry | 69c | 142.23$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac9…cf1abacked Nicolas Jarry | 69c | 142.23$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 402 | 64.4%259 W · 143 L | +12.8wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Miguel Damas | 14c | 108.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 2,982 | 39.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Nicolas Jarry | 67c | 100.01$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 3,901 | 50.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Nicolas Jarry | 73c | 99.76$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…534cbacked Nicolas Jarry | 69c | 98.14$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 779 | 67.8%528 W · 251 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ae…f71ebacked Miguel Damas | 12c | 97.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 390 | 39.5%154 W · 236 L | -46.8wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd038…8f51backed Miguel Damas | 22c | 96.18$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.28 | 4,288 | 40.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L | -139.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Nicolas Jarry | 68c | 89.42$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 3,072 | 44.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L | -30.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9f…d43cbacked Miguel Damas | 29c | 69.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.22 | 6,599 | 50.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L | +259.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70ac…0c7dbacked Nicolas Jarry | 70c | 63.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.32 | 2,537 | 53.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L | +61.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Nicolas Jarry | 63c | 54$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.98 | 262 | 54.6%143 W · 119 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58f2…692ebacked Miguel Damas | 37c | 51.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 534 | 57.7%308 W · 226 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Nicolas Jarry | 67c | 42.03$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.82 | 1,973 | 46.3%914 W · 1,059 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10cf…1cfbbacked Miguel Damas | 31c | 38.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 193 | 44.6%86 W · 107 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…8237backed Nicolas Jarry | 70c | 22.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 165 | 60%99 W · 66 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe36…9413backed Nicolas Jarry | 70c | 21.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 313 | 58.5%183 W · 130 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…3926backed Nicolas Jarry | 69c | 17.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.29 | 593 | 66.8%396 W · 197 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.