Tennis · resolved market
Samsonova vs. Baptiste: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3862309875df2aa121d6f5887222a9d3e99b1fa17ff13bced864ac82a43cfaf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $888
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Under | 28c | 136$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.92 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed Under | 28c | 79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.88 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Under | 28c | 50$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…2c48backed Over | 72c | 39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ae…bdfcbacked Over | 72c | 37$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 16 | 68.8%11 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Under | 28c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.92 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fec…8dc3backed Over | 72c | 32$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc727…adc2backed Over | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 66cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f8…667fbacked Over | 72c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Over | 74c | 22.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9840…cb31backed Over | 72c | 22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa554…e53dbacked Over | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebc…bb17backed Over | 72c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.9wins | +0.28per pick | 58cpaid | +62.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2348…9d10backed Over | 72c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x279b…7d84backed Over | 72c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…0aa5backed Over | 72c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -3.0wins | -0.34per pick | 56cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x72df…42f6backed Over | 72c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6014…5a58backed Over | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…c985backed Over | 72c | 14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Samsonova vs. Baptiste: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5this page
- Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Hailey BaptisteBaptiste won
- Samsonova vs. Baptiste: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Samsonova vs. Baptiste: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Samsonova vs. Baptiste: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Samsonova vs. Baptiste: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Under won
- Samsonova vs. Baptiste: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Samsonova vs BaptisteBaptiste won
- Set Handicap: Samsonova (-1.5) vs Baptiste (+1.5)Baptiste won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.