Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Samsonova vs Baptiste
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76b96f02f03239e85129eb9f3229dfe9d9dbbb615d6e3b3d0b0b0060b35b8948
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baptisteof Samsonova, Baptiste
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,004
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,004 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9868…e82bbacked Samsonova | 57c | 175.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 264 | 51.5%136 W · 128 L | +18.1wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…0bdabacked Baptiste | 50c | 142.63$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.63 | 982 | 40.1%394 W · 588 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1393…8392backed Baptiste | 36c | 133.16$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.22 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc0e6…71e4backed Baptiste | 34c | 123$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.18 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37bb…c71fbacked Baptiste | 34c | 61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.26 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Baptiste | 54c | 51.64$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebd1…1e86backed Samsonova | 22c | 47.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 69 | 23.2%16 W · 53 L | -8.4wins | -0.12per pick | 35cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Samsonova | 56c | 47.38$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.38 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed Baptiste | 33c | 45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a3…a380backed Baptiste | 34c | 42$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.72 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x934a…9096backed Samsonova | 64c | 39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.96 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…47f8backed Samsonova | 66c | 37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd647…9c8fbacked Samsonova | 64c | 36$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd84f…0475backed Samsonova | 66c | 32$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.12 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce96…ff5cbacked Samsonova | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf2…6640backed Samsonova | 66c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a00…0014backed Samsonova | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…3cefbacked Samsonova | 64c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xca65…6746backed Samsonova | 66c | 21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…ae41backed Samsonova | 66c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…390fbacked Samsonova | 67c | 19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed Samsonova | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Samsonova vs Baptistethis page
- Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Hailey BaptisteBaptiste won
- Samsonova vs. Baptiste: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Samsonova vs. Baptiste: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Samsonova vs. Baptiste: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Under won
- Samsonova vs. Baptiste: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
- Samsonova vs. Baptiste: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Under won
- Samsonova vs. Baptiste: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Samsonova (-1.5) vs Baptiste (+1.5)Baptiste won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.