Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on July 3?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3a45f4dae34c9d729d51bb1ebf59a56ceba47c3a01988205e2048e888d92a17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,162
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9cb7…d9b8backed Yes | 61c | 400$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158 | 72 | 23.6%17 W · 55 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 62c | 294.12$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.08 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 56c | 202.42$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.27 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 19c | 133.85$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.53 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 40c | 113$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdf3…7cc3backed No | 54c | 102$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -2.7wins | -0.17per pick | 54cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf028…6c6bbacked Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 138 | 37%51 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 34c | 84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.36 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 21c | 69.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffcd…1666backed No | 63c | 55.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 36c | 55.55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74be…b301backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 71c | 42.38$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.38 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked Yes | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d8…a8cebacked No | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 93 | 61.3%57 W · 36 L | +6.0wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 63c | 28.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36e8…f207backed No | 42c | 28.34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed Yes | 58c | 23.87$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.02 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 64c | 23.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on July 3?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on July 3?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on July 3?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on July 3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.