Tennis · resolved market
China Open: Anastasija Sevastova vs Kimberly Birrell
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3ce50c6f323e0e45d62a02a18d99d7947e49ba14a5e645ee9591c6be2387301
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sevastovaof Sevastova, Birrell
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,808
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,265
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,808 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 11 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4487…08c6backed Birrell | 39c | 2,816$1,106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,106.06 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Sevastova | 65c | 2,097$1,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$730.29 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Sevastova | 63c | 1,069$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.92 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Birrell | 47c | 288$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.36 | 139 | 35.3%49 W · 90 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Sevastova | 53c | 288$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.36 | 551 | 43.4%239 W · 312 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Sevastova | 73c | 206$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.64 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Sevastova | 76c | 200$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.78 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed Birrell | 48c | 107.69$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.69 | 296 | 36.8%109 W · 187 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Sevastova | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.69 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Sevastova | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Birrell | 41c | 26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.