Euroleague · resolved market
CB Breogan Lugo vs. CB Murcia
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3cf07a94f17c45a6b6f2ad65a9a4689d04ee6c64bb0189fe38b6ea85be044be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CB Murciaof CB Breogan Lugo, CB Murcia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,746
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,726
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,746 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed CB Breogan Lugo | 3c | 939$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 159 | 8.2%13 W · 146 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df3…bb17backed CB Murcia | 55c | 633.98$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.29 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb88e…08f3backed CB Breogan Lugo | 45c | 522.22$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfccd…02d6backed CB Breogan Lugo | 45c | 80$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ac…64e1backed CB Murcia | 61c | 39.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 71 | 53.5%38 W · 33 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked CB Breogan Lugo | 42c | 31.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 542 | 51.5%279 W · 263 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x58ac…7e1fbacked CB Murcia | 53c | 26.27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…899bbacked CB Murcia | 59c | 18.62$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 209 | 36.4%76 W · 133 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.