Other European Leagues · resolved market
Will Aarhus GF win on 2025-11-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3ff7e48c6ce264f7e6979dfe7e4a1801117141c3c70460517809070e6a8d0cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $52,215
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $58,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $52,215 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 40c | 30,000$11,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18,101.46 | 362 | 43.1%156 W · 206 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b4…f05dbacked No | 60c | 11,895$7,137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,136.7 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc16b…8404backed No | 61c | 10,000$6,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,100 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 37c | 5,104$1,896 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,895.96 | 834 | 40.8%340 W · 494 L | -35.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x057a…3bacbacked Yes | 60c | 4,084$2,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,633.74 | 293 | 57.3%168 W · 125 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 60c | 3,583$2,150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,149.64 | 2,130 | 45.8%975 W · 1,155 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 26c | 2,982$770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$769.99 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked No | 63c | 2,800$1,764 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,763.99 | 194 | 45.9%89 W · 105 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Yes | 37c | 807.59$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.78 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d94…40e6backed No | 40c | 620$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 60c | 531.25$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.07 | 1,098 | 50.5%554 W · 544 L | -36.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 60c | 473$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.92 | 1,143 | 53.2%608 W · 535 L | +44.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 61c | 291.98$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.6 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Yes | 37c | 233.03$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.81 | 294 | 25.9%76 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 37c | 170.6$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.48 | 1,441 | 51.1%736 W · 705 L | -16.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2b2…d101backed No | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 327 | 39.4%129 W · 198 L | -22.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed No | 39c | 117.24$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.64 | 181 | 43.6%79 W · 102 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f66…2ad8backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 351 | 54.7%192 W · 159 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 670 | 50.6%339 W · 331 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26be…d699backed No | 62c | 77.82$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb327…0fccbacked Yes | 40c | 74.87$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.16 | 91 | 20.9%19 W · 72 L | -11.0wins | -0.12per pick | 33cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3238…1521backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…3e73backed No | 62c | 48.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 60c | 41.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 1,159 | 60.7%703 W · 456 L | +68.5wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a5c…b3f2backed No | 28c | 39.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked No | 62c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Yes | 68c | 24.63$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb89…46f1backed Yes | 69c | 21.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 64 | 65.6%42 W · 22 L | +7.9wins | +0.12per pick | 53cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8217…4936backed No | 61c | 16.66$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 109 | 58.7%64 W · 45 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6882…6f08backed Yes | 67c | 15.31$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 66cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Aarhus GF win on 2025-11-30?this page
- Will Aarhus GF vs. FC København end in a draw?No won
- Will FC København win on 2025-11-30?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.