NFL · resolved market
Will the 49ers beat the Cardinals by 8 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe476354572680a89a1f90a6e4e1c2f9d215c7d4c5763b2c82e9ecb0398c0bd3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cardinalsof 49ers, Cardinals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x067f…a821backed Cardinals | 50c | 2,520$1,260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 128 | 42.2%54 W · 74 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed 49ers | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 330 | 47.9%158 W · 172 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed 49ers | 50c | 690$342 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.9 | 226 | 38.9%88 W · 138 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Cardinals | 52c | 155$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 293 | 56%164 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Cardinals | 52c | 103.32$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x531a…da3cbacked 49ers | 46c | 77.78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.78 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbae4…c085backed Cardinals | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 134 | 28.4%38 W · 96 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3f…83dbbacked Cardinals | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…3f08backed 49ers | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed 49ers | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf339…e010backed 49ers | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 196 | 54.1%106 W · 90 L | +15.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…7708backed 49ers | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the 49ers beat the Cardinals by 8 or more points?this page
- Will the Broncos beat the Raiders by 3 or more points?Broncos won
- Will the Commanders beat the Browns by 4 or more points?Commanders won
- Will the Jaguars beat the Colts by 3 or more points?Jaguars won
- Will the Packers beat the Rams by 3 or more points?Packers won
- Will the Patriots beat the Dolphins by 2 or more points?Dolphins won
- Will the Ravens beat the Bengals by 3 or more points?Ravens won
- Will the Seahawks beat the Giants by 7 or more points?Giants won
- Will the Steelers beat the Cowboys by 3 or more points?Cowboys won
- Will the Vikings beat the Jets by 3 or more points?Vikings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.