NFL · resolved market
Will the Steelers beat the Cowboys by 3 or more points?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcff1a934913f9d05bd594df0ea7502b9b5208aa02549858754abcddc4a6a0b03
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cowboysof Steelers, Cowboys
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,876
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,876 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd244…f24cbacked Steelers | 53c | 1,900$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 62 | 37.1%23 W · 39 L | -8.3wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Cowboys | 47c | 1,683$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.15 | 442 | 46.8%207 W · 235 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…047dbacked Cowboys | 54c | 1,630$888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.8 | 324 | 38%123 W · 201 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc1a…e11bbacked Steelers | 54c | 605$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.65 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 55cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Steelers | 52c | 364.1$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.33 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1856…1964backed Cowboys | 46c | 357.78$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.2 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +36%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed7…537abacked Steelers | 53c | 283.02$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -13%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…6428backed Cowboys | 50c | 225.2$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e41…cc7abacked Steelers | 53c | 216.98$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30e8…9049backed Cowboys | 50c | 216.6$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc7…1308backed Steelers | 54c | 212.81$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Steelers | 50c | 174.98$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.49 | 770 | 52.7%406 W · 364 L | +24.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x47ab…95dfbacked Steelers | 53c | 159.99$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.9 | 180 | 51.7%93 W · 87 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e91…b801backed Steelers | 53c | 153.23$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 50 | 34%17 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8244…7a11backed Cowboys | 50c | 146.37$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.29 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x531a…da3cbacked Steelers | 50c | 116.74$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3d…8db7backed Steelers | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 164 | 39.6%65 W · 99 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd13…a813backed Steelers | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 91 | 40.7%37 W · 54 L | -4.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Cowboys | 47c | 99.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.62 | 415 | 40.2%167 W · 248 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb6…ec60backed Cowboys | 50c | 93.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 196 | 38.8%76 W · 120 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccac…ab7dbacked Cowboys | 49c | 68.51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.94 | 47 | 40.4%19 W · 28 L | -5.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae6f…7399backed Steelers | 54c | 64.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 39 | 74.4%29 W · 10 L | +4.3wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb35b…fc08backed Cowboys | 51c | 58.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 178 | 23%41 W · 137 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…eee1backed Steelers | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb4…2794backed Cowboys | 46c | 45$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.3 | 141 | 39%55 W · 86 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02a1…3f08backed Cowboys | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 129 | 51.9%67 W · 62 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c79…15dbbacked Cowboys | 50c | 36.42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa15b…30f1backed Steelers | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97db…d654backed Steelers | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 53cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Steelers beat the Cowboys by 3 or more points?this page
- Will the 49ers beat the Cardinals by 8 or more points?Cardinals won
- Will the Broncos beat the Raiders by 3 or more points?Broncos won
- Will the Commanders beat the Browns by 4 or more points?Commanders won
- Will the Jaguars beat the Colts by 3 or more points?Jaguars won
- Will the Packers beat the Rams by 3 or more points?Packers won
- Will the Patriots beat the Dolphins by 2 or more points?Dolphins won
- Will the Ravens beat the Bengals by 3 or more points?Ravens won
- Will the Seahawks beat the Giants by 7 or more points?Giants won
- Will the Vikings beat the Jets by 3 or more points?Vikings won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.