Poker · resolved market
Will Togi win at Hustler Casino on Friday?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe493a748624c65a643772c2c2a6c8e208a5e873cfe0414f81e6b927da687051c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Pokerevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,607
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Poker is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Poker | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Yes | 23c | 201$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 77c | 199.99$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…8f27backed No | 53c | 108.74$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…63cfbacked No | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc46a…c10dbacked Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab2b…c514backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 63c | 66.37$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +57.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf68…a7c0backed Yes | 25c | 52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0b…b8b2backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d32…32e1backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de2…42e5backed Yes | 23c | 47.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd2c…31f4backed No | 52c | 39.99$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.37per pick | 49cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc842…922ebacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0f…84b9backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Poker and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.